Gerald Caplan: unless progressive forces unite, Cons will rule

This post is taken directly from The Stop Stephen Harper Blog. Thanks, and much appreciated, my friend!

This is long time NDP stalwart Gerald Caplan, in Ŧhe Globe and Mail, on the fate we will have in store for us, unless progressive forces unite. The important part is at the end in bold:

On the other hand, the night did not change the key dynamic of this election – that Mr. Harper will win handily, and whether he sneaks his elusive majority or not, he will govern for the next several years as if he has a majority. He will do whatever he wants in his lifelong quest for a smaller social state and larger security state.Why? Because Mr. Dion will certainly be forced to step down, if he hasn’t the wit to do so on his own. Mr. Duceppe may well join him, knowing that Mr. Harper helped him pull off his great political comeback, allowing him to leave on a high note. The NDP will be deeply in debt, having gambled a fortune in this campaign, and will be incapable of even muttering the word “campaign” for a long time to come. And Ms. May might have as many as one MP in the next House prepared to vote against the government.

Even though it is clearly a violation of parliamentary conventions, if it’s a minority Mr. Harper can stoop once again to labeling every vote a non-confidence vote, since in our system there’s no one to slap him down. But really, he’ll hardly need to do so. No one will be looking for another fight for the foreseeable future. The Liberals, already a shell of their former selves, are likely to tear themselves apart as Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae go after whatever carrion is left on the dying bones.

I have no idea how it can ever happen, but unless the more-or-less progressive anti-Harper forces can come together in some form, conservatives who accumulate anywhere between 36-40% of the popular vote will continue to rule this country. Ask Jean Chretien. He won his three majorities exactly this way. Ask Stephen Harper. He recognized the secret of Mr. Chretien’s success and is now busily exploiting it.


9 Responses to Gerald Caplan: unless progressive forces unite, Cons will rule

  1. Stephen K says:

    Hey, thanks for reproducing this my friend. Unfortunately, I think Caplan’s analysis may be spot on. Then again, poll results post-debate seem to be very inconsistent.


  2. jennessex says:

    This has been said elsewhere but Gerry Caplan is only an NDP for pay. He hasn’t been involved with the party either federally or provincially for years. That said, I do want to point out that Jack said he would be willing to work with other parties after the election to stop Harper. When asked about Layton’s statement, Dion vociferously said he would not work with the NDP.

    This to me makes the choice clear. Although I don’t believe in strategic voting, if ABCers want some kind of coalition government they had better vote for every NDPer who is in a winnable riding. This is particularly true in ridings where the fight is between the Conservative and the New Democrat (this would be in most of BC, all of Sask, most of Manitoba) But it also means voting NDP even if that race is between a liberal and a New Democrat because the only chance for a coalition will be if the NDP has the stronger caucus.


  3. jennessex says:

    Oh I forgot to mention: in 2004 and 2006 the Liberal call for strategic voting actually helped elect at least 3 conservatives in BC and all the urban candidates in Saskatchewan.


  4. verbena19 says:

    Stephen: as always, much appreciated! 🙂

    jennessex: thanks for your input. Something more points to ponder… btw, we wouldn’t have to be considering such choices if we had a PR voting system instead of our antiquated FPTP. Don’t you think so? ~V


  5. janfromthebruce says:

    it is quite true what Jenn said about Caplan. He hasn’t been seen in NDP circles in years, and his involvement was with Bob Rae and the Ontario NDP govt back in the early 90s. That govt left an awful taste in our mouths which we still hear about.
    It’s safe to say that the Globe and Mail would enlist a lapsed old NDPer associated with Rae who could be trusted to produce dire predictions and dismal analysis about the NDP – and guess what, he is living up to his bargain with the corporate paper. NDP got more positive commentary from Reid than this guy. He is so depressing, and thus his rambling is perhaps about us going with bobby.


  6. janfromthebruce says:

    I sure have also added this thought. I wondered how he felt when he hears his old friend and comrade bash the NDP – I wondered if he cringed and remembered the good old days when he was at the end of that stick.


  7. Stephen K says:

    Yes jan, you posted similar comments on my blog. I’m not an NDP member nor an Ontarian so I don’t know that much about Caplan’s partisan activities. I do know that he is closely linked to Stephen Lewis, for whom I have a ton of respect, he has written extensively on the Rwandan genocide, and is strong on African development issues. I’ve always had the impression that he was a principled democratic socialist, and certainly anyone who has done the non-partisan work he has will gain respect from me.

    Putting that aside, I think what he says about Harper winning, possibly a majority, unless progressive forces unite, unfortunately seems about spot on.


  8. Stephen K says:

    I guess ultimately, I would say that I hope that Caplan is wrong in his analysis, but I’d rather not take the chance.


  9. verbena19 says:

    Stephen, I agree with you, my friend. I’d rather not take the chance on Harper winning either a majority or a minority. Whichever way he wins, he will rule in his autocratic style a la his cohorts in the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld-Wolfowitz-Chicago School of Economics (Milton Friedman) cabal. That would be disastrous for Canada!!!

    For anyone who is a skeptic, please Google Milton Friedman, the Chicago School, and read for yourselves. And read Naomi Klein’s book: “The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism”. This is what Harper has in store for us!!!!!


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